đź’Ą Big Bang vs. Slow Burn

Exploring the Best Way to Make a Change (As People, as Businesses) — Plus, Getting the Tea on Tariff Realities with a Hardware CEO

Author

Katie Perry
April 24, 2025

Welcome to Tuesday Thursday Saturday! I share a snapshot of trending stories across business, tech, and culture three times a week. Subscribe and tell me what you want to hear about next! - KP

The Big Story: How to Change

I’ve probably circumnavigated the earth twice in lifetime miles run because yes, I enjoy running, but also, I am God-awful at breaking a habit. The truth is, I come from a long line of stubborn people. And when it’s fueling a good habit, it’s great. But when it’s tethered to a bad one? Not so much. 

There’s a moment (or chasm!) between wanting to change and actually doing it. That’s where we tend to get stuck. Whether it’s personal or professional, figuring out how to change is half the battle.

So I started wondering: is there a best way to make a change? Not just as individuals, but for teams, companies, and whole organizations. Is it better to ease in gradually or make a clean break? Big bang, or slow burn?

I did some digging through behavioral science, psychology research, and business case studies. Here’s what I learned.

Personal Change: Breaking vs. Building

Let’s start with the individual.

If you’ve ever tried to break a bad habit, you’ve probably heard that quitting “cold turkey” is hard. But in some cases, it might be better. A 2019 meta-analysis on smoking cessation found that people who quit abruptly had significantly higher success rates than those who cut down gradually, even when both groups used nicotine replacement therapy.

A similar pattern shows up in psychotherapy. Studies show that patients who experience sudden gains, that is, rapid improvements between therapy sessions, tend to have better long-term outcomes than those who improve little by little. Importantly, these jumps often come after an internal tipping point has been building in the background.

Simplified behavioral change model

But that doesn’t mean gradual change is useless. Quite the opposite. When it comes to starting new habits, like working out or meditating, starting small is often more effective. BJ Fogg’s “tiny habits” method argues that a 30-second habit is more likely to stick than a big, unsustainable overhaul. And neuroscience backs that up: repeated, small actions help the brain shift control from deliberate effort to automatic behavior over time.

Even with weight loss, where the prevailing advice has long been “slow and steady”, one study in The Lancet found that people who lost weight rapidly were more likely to reach their target weight than those who lost it gradually, and they didn’t regain it any faster. No wonder the GLP-1 weight loss drug market is absolutely ripping right now.

So, when should you go all in versus ease in? Here's a quick reference:

Organizational Change: Evolution vs. Punctuated Equilibrium

Organizations face the same tension. Change too fast and you risk chaos. Move too slowly and you risk falling behind.

When conditions are stable, gradual change often works best. Toyota’s Kaizen approach — where employees constantly suggest small improvements — helped build one of the most efficient manufacturing systems in the world. Likewise, Italian energy company Enel successfully underwent a multi-year digital transformation by rolling out change in phases: smart meters, cloud IT, agile systems, without a single dramatic pivot.

But there are times when slow just doesn’t cut it. 

IBM in the '90s needed to reinvent itself overnight. CEO Lou Gerstner slashed costs, shifted the business model, and turned around the company. Same with Apple in 1997. Steve Jobs cut most product lines and refocused the business. A slow, cautious approach wouldn’t have saved them.

Change is so hard that companies spend billions on hiring experts to figure out the best ways to help them pivot.

And then there are layoffs. Just this week, Bloomberg reported Intel’s imminent plans to lay off 20% of its workforce – some 21,000 people. It would be one of the deepest and most dramatic cuts in history.

When it comes to RIFs, the consensus among HR leaders and executives is: do it once, and do it clean. Multiple rounds of layoffs tank morale, kill trust, and keep employees living in fear. As Guy Kawasaki puts it: “Cut deep and cut once.” Prolonged uncertainty is often more damaging than the shock of a single major change.

Still, not all change can, or should, happen overnight. Culture shifts, for instance, almost always require long-term reinforcement. You can announce a new mission in a day, but changing how people work and think takes sustained effort. We’re seeing the impacts of this as companies are 180-ing their DEI policies overnight to mixed reception.

It’s Not Just the Change; It’s the Readiness

What ties all this together is that whether change happens fast or slow, what matters most is readiness. Behavior change research shows that even the most abrupt decisions often come after a long period of reflection. You quit smoking in a day, but only after weeks of buildup. A company announces a new direction, but only after months or years of careful planning.

That preparation matters. And maybe, the decision to change, that internal tipping point, is just as hard (and important) as the change itself.

According to experts, once you’re ready to jump, you should consider the best strategy for getting there before you act. Fast change can shock a system into motion. Slow change can build strength over time.

Either way, as David Bowie so eloquently puts it, “turn and face the strange!”

Daily Rip Live Recap: Tesla Sales Decline, But the Stock is Up on Hopes Elon Will Return to His Day Job; Q&A with Hardware CEO

Watch us every weekday, M-Th at 9 AM ET on YouTube, X, and in the Stocktwits app.

Every weekday, Shay Boloor and I run down the biggest market news and events LIVE on Stocktwits’ morning show, The Daily Rip Live. This week, we mixed it up a bit. We covered major moves like Tesla’s earnings takeaways (bloody sales, positive movement on indication that Elon is going to try to do less in DC), Musk-Bessent’s (alleged) Oval Office shouting match, (never forget that women are “too emotional to lead!”), and mass layoffs at Intel.

On Thursday, with Shay en route to NYC for next week’s Cashtag Awards, Howard Lindzon and I spoke with a hardware CEO (Dorrian Porter, Vestaboard) who is caught in the crosshairs of tariff drama. It was an illuminating conversation that went beyond the concepts of some of these policies and into the realities thousands (millions) of small-to-mid-sized businesses are facing.

  • How execs are scenario-mapping based on tariff ranges (currently at "not nothing" to 145%!); when to make a decision, and when to wait it out.

  • What goes into switching manufacturing geos and why "just reshore" isn't a viable near-term solution for many.

  • Product innovation as a by-product; do new products need to be developed based on manufacturing limitations and/or pricing considerations in different markets?

Hear Shay and me yap about the markets every weekday at 9 a.m. ET on X (@stocktwits), YouTube, LinkedIn, or in your Stocktwits app. Follow me there — I’m @stocktwitsKP!

Now Here’s a Chart

In a previous edition, I wrote about how the democratization of the stock market and crypto have had the impact of turning everything into a betting market. Robinhood added prediction markets to its product lineup earlier this year. And as of this morning, more than $5.5 million has been wagered (so far) on who the next pope will be.

Further down the list with way worse odds but a far superior name? Pierbattista Pizzaballa.

Via Polymarket, captured April 24, 2025

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Tuesday Thursday Saturday is written by Katie Perry, owner of Ursa Major Media, which provides fractional marketing services and strategy in software, tech, consumer products, professional services, and other industries. She is also the co-host of Stocktwits’ Daily Rip Live show.

Disclaimer: The contents here reflect recaps and summaries of pre-reported or published data, news, and trends. I have cited sources and context for the information provided to the best of my ability. The purpose of the newsletter is to inform and educate on larger trends shaping business and culture — this is NOT investment advice. As an investor, you should always do your own research before making any decisions about your money or your portfolio.